Leonardo (LDO.MI) — DRS cyber/space division growing 30% YoY. Recent Thales sensor contract win. Undervalued relative to Rheinmetall at 14x vs 28x P/E. Strong fit with your defense thesis.
Your defense thesisEuropean DefenseSpace & Cyber+28% upside
⚡ Position early to catch the post-halving upswing
Your Hypotheses
"European defense spending will structurally accelerate"
+22.1%
›
Created Aug 1 · 193 days active
Active
RHM +28.4%AIR +15.8%
Explore reasoning chain →
"AI chip demand will drive semiconductor equipment makers"
+18.4%
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Created Oct 10 · 123 days active
Active
ASML +14.2%BESI +22.6%
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"GLP-1 platform expanding far beyond obesity"
+14.2%
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Created Dec 1 · 71 days active
Active
NVO +16.8%LLY +11.6%
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"Industrial automation adoption accelerating in Asia"
+8.7%
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Created Jun 15 · 240 days active
Validated
ABB +7.2%FANUY +10.2%
Explore reasoning chain →
"US residential solar policy tailwinds"
-3.2%
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Created Sep 15 · 148 days active
Exploring
ENPH -2.4%SEDG -4.1%
Explore reasoning chain →
Y
You · Observation
every big tech company is dumping money into AI infra — msft $80B, google $75B, meta $65B just for 2025. where does all that capital actually end up?
AI
FinLogos AI · Analysis
Classic picks-and-shovels setup. Semiconductor equipment makers — ASML, BESI, ASM International — benefit regardless of which chip company wins the AI race. They're the toll road.
AI Suggestion
"Consider the power infrastructure angle — AI data centers need 2–4x more power per rack. Vertiv and Schneider Electric worth investigating."
AI
FinLogos AI · Research
Analyzed equipment maker order books, backlog growth, and forward P/E vs 5-year averages. ASML EUV backlog at €39B (record). BESI advanced packaging demand surging from CoWoS ramp at TSMC.
AI
FinLogos AI · Discovery
2 companies with strong risk/reward:
ASMLASML Holding NV
+14.2%
BESIBE Semiconductor
+22.6%
AI Suggestion
"European defense sector showing similar government-driven demand dynamics — worth a parallel hypothesis."
Y
You · Follow-up
what about ASML supply chain bottlenecks though? who are the key tier 2 suppliers
AI
FinLogos AI · Deep Research
ASML's critical suppliers: Zeiss SMT (optics, private), VDL Group (modules, private), BESI (18x fwd P/E vs 24x 5yr avg). BESI's advanced packaging is the bottleneck for NVIDIA's CoWoS capacity.
AI Suggestion
"BESI already in tracking. Consider ASM International (ALD monopoly for 2nm node) as a third pick."
T
Tracking · Since Oct 10
Performance: +18.4% weighted. Outperforming S&P 500 by +14.8%.
Y
You · Observation
NATO just committed to 2.5% GDP on defense by 2028. germany alone going from €50B to €75B. that's a massive jump — is this actually investable?
AI
FinLogos AI · Analysis
This looks structural, not cyclical. Europe's defense budget gap with the US is $120B/year — European defense contractors could see multi-year order book expansion. Ammunition production is especially constrained — demand exceeds supply through 2028.
AI Suggestion
"Space & satellite defense is growing at +23% CAGR — fastest defense subsector. Leonardo's DRS division has key NATO satellite contracts."
AI
FinLogos AI · Research
Analyzed European defense primes by order backlog-to-revenue ratio, capacity expansion, and margin trajectory. Rheinmetall order backlog grew 62% YoY to €38.3B. Ammunition backlog alone at €16B — 3 years of production.
hmm rheinmetall at 28x P/E tho. isn't the growth already priced in?
AI
FinLogos AI · Deep Research
At 28x P/E with 40% revenue CAGR through 2027, PEG ratio is only 0.7x — actually cheap for growth. Building 3 new ammunition plants (Germany, Lithuania, Ukraine). Capacity will double by 2027. Margin expansion story as ammunition mix shifts higher.
T
Tracking · Since Aug 1
Performance: +22.1% weighted. Outperforming S&P 500 by +17.3%.
Y
You · Observation
china just passed the US in robot density — 392 vs 285 per 10k workers. SE asia reshoring is driving insane automation demand
AI
FinLogos AI · Analysis
ABB and Fanuc are effectively a duopoly in high-end industrial robotics. If Asia-Pacific demand holds, these two capture most of the upside. IFR forecasts 35% growth in installations through 2027.
AI
FinLogos AI · Discovery
Two leaders in Asia-Pacific automation:
ABBABB Ltd
+7.2%
FANUYFanuc Corp
+10.2%
AI Suggestion
"Keyence (6861.T) — sensors and vision systems for automation. 55% operating margins, less cyclical than robot OEMs."
T
Validated · Since Jun 15
Performance: +8.7% weighted. Thesis confirmed by Q3/Q4 order data. Moderate outperformance — consider taking partial profits.
Y
You · Observation
GLP-1 drugs keep showing results way beyond weight loss — heart disease, alzheimer's, even addiction?? if this plays out the TAM goes from $50B to like $150B+
AI
FinLogos AI · Research
47 active clinical trials across 12 new indications. Novo Nordisk leads with 28 trials (semaglutide), Eli Lilly with 15 (tirzepatide). Key readouts: Alzheimer's Phase 2b (Feb '26), NASH Phase 3 (Q2 '26), heart failure (Q3 '26).
AI Suggestion
"The real bottleneck is manufacturing capacity. Catalent, Samsung Biologics, and Lonza are key CDMOs — whoever scales peptide production fastest wins."
AI
FinLogos AI · Discovery
Pure-play GLP-1 leaders:
NVONovo Nordisk
+16.8%
LLYEli Lilly
+11.6%
T
Tracking · Since Dec 1
Performance: +14.2% weighted. Alzheimer's Phase 2b readout just confirmed the thesis.
Y
You · Observation
ITC credits probably getting extended. US residential solar was up 34% last year. enphase and solaredge dominate microinverters
AI
FinLogos AI · Caution
Policy risk materializing. The Clean Energy Act stalled in Senate committee in September. Channel checks show Enphase inventory buildup at distributors (6.2 weeks vs 4.1 normal). SolarEdge guiding Q1 revenue down 12% — European demand weakening.
ENPHEnphase Energy
-2.4%
SEDGSolarEdge Tech
-4.1%
AI Suggestion
"Pivot thesis: utility-scale solar has structural advantages regardless of residential policy. First Solar (FSLR) has $20B backlog, NextEra (NEE) 17 GW pipeline. Different risk profile entirely."
T
Tracking · Underperforming
Performance: -3.2%. Underperforming S&P by -8.0%. Consider closing or pivoting to utility-scale thesis.
YYou · Observation
big tech dumping money into AI infra — msft $80B, goog $75B, meta $65B. where does it end up?
AIAI · Analysis
Picks and shovels: ASML, BESI benefit regardless of which chip company wins
AI branch"Power infrastructure angle — AI racks need 2-4x more power. Vertiv, Schneider worth investigating"